Donald Trump: Remarks, Mar 11, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his visit at Thermo Fisher Scientific?
Markets
25 words · 2 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff | Yes | 62%n=138 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 38%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | No | 67%n=79 from settlement history | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | No | 61%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 59%n=98 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 57%n=199 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | No | 57%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 54%n=72 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 54%n=124 from settlement history | – |
| Favored Nation | No | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 52%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 51%n=68 from settlement history | – |
| Investment / Invested | No | 51%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 51%n=164 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 51%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 51%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| GLP-1 / Ozempic | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| TrumpRx | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | No | 46%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Insurance | No | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 33%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 31%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 30%n=71 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 5%n=300 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPRESMENTION-DJT26MAR12 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP