Donald Trump: Keynote, May 4, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Small Business Summit?
Polymarket What will Trump say during remarks at the Small Business Summit?
Markets
53 words · 36 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trillion | Yes | 72%n=90 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 70%n=240 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 68%n=132 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 68%n=167 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 67%n=99 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 63%n=135 from settlement history | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | Yes | 62%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 61%n=60 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 60%n=150 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 59%n=216 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 58%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 58%n=68 from settlement history | – |
| Crazy / Lunatic | Yes | 57%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Made in America | Yes | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Biden / Obama 4+ times | Yes | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Invested / Investment | Yes | 54%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| First Term | Yes | 54%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 12+ times | Yes | 53%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas | Yes | 53%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Job 10+ times | Yes | 53%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| King | Yes | 52%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Depreciation | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Farmer | Yes | 51%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Farm / Farmer | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Loan | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tax Cut | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tax on Tips 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Market | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tax 5+ times | Yes | 49%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | Yes | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Security | Yes | 47%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | Yes | 47%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | Yes | 41%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 40%n=138 from settlement history | – |
| November 5 | Yes | 39%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | 37%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | No | 67%n=75 from settlement history | – |
| New York | No | 63%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 61%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 56%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Jerome "Too Late" Powell | No | 53%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Strait / Hormuz | No | 50%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Rudy / Giuliani | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Transgender | No | 47%n=109 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 3+ times | No | 47%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Coal | No | 46%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | No | 44%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| COVID / Pandemic | No | 41%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream | No | 41%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 37%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | No | 36%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 33%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 22%n=355 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-26MAY04 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP