Donald Trump: Remarks, Jan 16, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during The Florida Panthers White House visit?
Polymarket What will Trump say during Dedication Ceremony on January 16?
Markets
35 words · 16 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trillion | Yes | 68%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 66%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 65%n=105 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 62%n=115 from settlement history | – |
| Minnesota / Walz | Yes | 53%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 49%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 46%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Mar-a-Lago | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Overtime | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Honored / Honor 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump / Florida 4+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crime | Yes | 40%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Olympic / Olympics | Yes | 37%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Ron / DeSantis | Yes | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / National Guard | Yes | 35%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Minnesota | Yes | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 67%n=149 from settlement history | – |
| Eight Wars / Eighth War | No | 63%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 55%n=82 from settlement history | – |
| Trump / MAGA | No | 53%n=87 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland | No | 51%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Any Question | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Gold / Golden | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Healthcare | No | 47%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 43%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Rat | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Somalia / Somalian / Somali | No | 41%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| 4-mile | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Maduro / Venezuela | No | 40%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 3+ times | No | 38%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 38%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 33%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 32%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Nobel | No | 14%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 6%n=231 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26JAN16 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP