Donald Trump: Speech, May 22, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Swearing-In Ceremony for the Chairman of the Federal Reserve?
Polymarket What will Trump say during Kevin Warsh's Swearing-In?
Markets
43 words · 15 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 67%n=150 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 61%n=257 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | Yes | 61%n=97 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 58%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Deal / Settle | Yes | 58%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 57%n=107 from settlement history | – |
| First Term | Yes | 56%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 54%n=237 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 54%n=83 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | Yes | 50%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 50%n=179 from settlement history | – |
| Booming | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Job | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Inflation 5+ times | Yes | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Budget | Yes | 37%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | 63%n=76 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | 63%n=80 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 59%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 56%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 55%n=146 from settlement history | – |
| Egg | No | 51%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 51%n=93 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 50%n=128 from settlement history | – |
| Gold | No | 46%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Powell | No | 45%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Renovation | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| War | No | 42%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| All time high | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cut rate | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dumb | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Good afternoon | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Unemployment 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Too Late | No | 40%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Recession | No | 40%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Jerome / Powell | No | 39%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff 5+ times | No | 39%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream | No | 36%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom / Pool | No | 36%n=71 from settlement history | – |
| Six Seven | No | 34%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Highest Inflation | No | 32%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 27%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 26%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 12%n=377 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-26MAY22 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP