Donald Trump: Keynote, May 1, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during The Forum Club of the Palm Beaches Dinner?
Markets
26 words · 15 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trillion | Yes | 70%n=89 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 68%n=238 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 66%n=166 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 65%n=130 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 63%n=98 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 57%n=149 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 57%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Landslide | Yes | 56%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 55%n=213 from settlement history | – |
| Gulf of America | Yes | 55%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 54%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 53%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Investment / Invested | Yes | 48%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 46%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | Yes | 34%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | No | 76%n=73 from settlement history | – |
| Golf / Golfer / Golfing | No | 55%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 52%n=106 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream | No | 50%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | No | 50%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| DeSantis | No | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| November 5 | No | 46%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 44%n=136 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | No | 41%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 35%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 24%n=352 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-26MAY01 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP