Donald Trump: Remarks, Mar 19, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his bilateral meeting with Japan?
Markets
27 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 66%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | Yes | 63%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 59%n=106 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 58%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 56%n=78 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 55%n=208 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 55%n=129 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 54%n=76 from settlement history | – |
| Shinzo / Abe | Yes | 54%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | Yes | 53%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 50%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | No | 64%n=81 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 63%n=146 from settlement history | – |
| Save Act / Save America Act | No | 60%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 54%n=120 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 51%n=84 from settlement history | – |
| Invested / Investment | No | 48%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 47%n=175 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 43%n=115 from settlement history | – |
| Toyota | No | 36%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacturing | No | 36%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Taiwan | No | 31%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 31%n=60 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 29%n=72 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 26%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Mog / Mogged / Mogging | No | 13%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 4%n=311 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26MAR19 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP