Donald Trump: Remarks, May 12, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during the bilateral with China?
Markets
36 words · 0 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | No | 63%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | No | 63%n=93 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 60%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 58%n=140 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 58%n=98 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 56%n=88 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 55%n=171 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 54%n=139 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 54%n=248 from settlement history | – |
| Made in America / American Made | No | 52%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Farmer | No | 51%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | No | 50%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 48%n=105 from settlement history | – |
| Soybean | No | 48%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 45%n=224 from settlement history | – |
| Middle East | No | 45%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Moon | No | 45%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 43%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 42%n=73 from settlement history | – |
| Windmill | No | 41%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Panda | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Putin | No | 40%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Robot / Robotic / Robotics | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 38%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Covid / China Virus | No | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Investment / Invested | No | 37%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Hantavirus | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 35%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 35%n=143 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacturing | No | 33%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Disaster | No | 32%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | No | 30%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Taiwan | No | 26%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok | No | 24%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 24%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 4%n=364 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26MAY12 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP