Donald Trump: Remarks, Mar 20, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Commander in Chief Trophy Presentation?
Polymarket What will Trump say during trophy presentation?
Markets
33 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trillion | Yes | 62%n=82 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 59%n=107 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 56%n=77 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 55%n=80 from settlement history | – |
| Oval Office | Yes | 55%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 55%n=210 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 52%n=121 from settlement history | – |
| Where are you | Yes | 50%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Job 10+ times | Yes | 41%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Ball 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hegseth | Yes | 31%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 2+ times | Yes | 27%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | No | 67%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 55%n=131 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 51%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | 50%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 45%n=177 from settlement history | – |
| Gold | No | 45%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Messi / Ronaldo | No | 45%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 44%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Cookie | No | 43%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Epic Fury | No | 39%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Olympic / Olympics / World Cup | No | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Excursion | No | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Rebuild | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fight Fight Fight | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 33%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 31%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| B-2 | No | 30%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 29%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Khamenei / Ayatollah | No | 17%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Mog / Mogged / Mogging | No | 12%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 4%n=313 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26MAR20 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP