Donald Trump: Remarks, Feb 12, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Champion of Coal Event
Polymarket What will Trump say during the EPA announcement?
Markets
38 words · 19 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trillion | Yes | 70%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 63%n=122 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 59%n=176 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 53%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| California / New York | Yes | 52%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 51%n=113 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 51%n=143 from settlement history | – |
| Wind / Windmill | Yes | 49%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Midterm / Primary | Yes | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 44%n=98 from settlement history | – |
| Scam / Hoax | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff / Oil / Gas 7+ times | Yes | 43%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| China / Russia / Canada 5+ times | Yes | 43%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Lee / Zeldin | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Plant | Yes | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Clean | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Thousand / Million / Billion 5+ times | Yes | 37%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Biden / Obama 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | 33%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | No | 64%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 60%n=80 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | 54%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi | No | 52%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 51%n=104 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | 50%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Congress | No | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hoax | No | 40%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Trans | No | 40%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| National Security | No | 39%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Carbon / Hydrogen | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hybrid | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Miner | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bad Bunny | No | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 32%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / National Guard | No | 29%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 25%n=72 from settlement history | – |
| El Paso / Drone | No | 22%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 5%n=269 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26FEB12 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP