Donald Trump: Keynote, Mar 27, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his remarks at the FII PRIORITY Summit?
Polymarket What will Trump say during FII PRIORITY Summit on March 27?
Markets
58 words · 42 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | 74%n=66 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | Yes | 68%n=85 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 66%n=152 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 64%n=110 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 5+ times | Yes | 63%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 60%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 59%n=77 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 59%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | Yes | 58%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 58%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 57%n=133 from settlement history | – |
| 250 | Yes | 57%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 56%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| S&P / Dow | Yes | 55%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 55%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| 250 / 250th | Yes | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Biden / Obama 7+ times | Yes | 53%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 53%n=185 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterated / Obliteration / Obliterating | Yes | 52%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Gianni / Infantino | Yes | 52%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Princess | Yes | 52%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Gulf | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Saudi | Yes | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Kuwait | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Never Forget | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bonus | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rich | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 30+ times | Yes | 47%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Epic Fury | Yes | 46%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | Yes | 45%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas | Yes | 44%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Genius Act | Yes | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 42%n=119 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba | Yes | 40%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / TSA | Yes | 40%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | Yes | 39%n=60 from settlement history | – |
| Water | Yes | 38%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Gulf of America | Yes | 38%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| America First | Yes | 33%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 30%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Nobel | Yes | 23%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Yes | 18%n=324 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 60%n=91 from settlement history | – |
| Windmill | No | 59%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 54%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| World Cup | No | 54%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Movie Star | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Delcy / Rodriguez | No | 52%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | 51%n=58 from settlement history | – |
| Favored Nation | No | 49%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 47%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Job 25+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fraud | No | 40%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Board of Peace | No | 40%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Too Late | No | 39%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordability / Affordable | No | 38%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Highest Inflation | No | 36%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Excursion | No | 34%n=7 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26MAR27 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP