Donald Trump: Remarks, May 6, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Military Mother's Day Event?
Polymarket What will Trump or Melania say during Military Mothers event?
Markets
32 words · 16 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trillion | Yes | 64%n=91 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela | Yes | 62%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 58%n=137 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 54%n=84 from settlement history | – |
| Barron / Genius | Yes | 53%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Space force | Yes | 51%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 51%n=152 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 49%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 49%n=100 from settlement history | – |
| Greatest military / Strongest military | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 44%n=218 from settlement history | – |
| Hegseth | Yes | 43%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Six Seven | Yes | 40%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Child 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| School | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ballroom | Yes | 27%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 58%n=134 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 55%n=242 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 53%n=111 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 48%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 45%n=69 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 45%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Darling | No | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | No | 44%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 44%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Movie Star | No | 41%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Epic Fury | No | 39%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 39%n=140 from settlement history | – |
| Deepfake | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Central Casting | No | 38%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Loser | No | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 4%n=358 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26MAY06 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP