Donald Trump: July 4th rally, Jul 4, 2026
Kalshi and Polymarket listed 66 words for Donald Trump’s rally on Jul 4, 2026; 65 have settled so far, 19 of them Yes.
UpdatedMarkets
66 words · 19 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venezuela | Yes | 67%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Invest / Invested / Investment | Yes | 62%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | Yes | 61%n=105 from settlement history | – |
| First Term | Yes | 58%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Space Force | Yes | 57%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Save Act / Save America Act | Yes | 57%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Gulf of America | Yes | 53%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Military | Yes | 53%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream | Yes | 51%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 51%n=115 from settlement history | – |
| Moon | Yes | 50%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| World War | Yes | 50%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | Yes | 49%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Hundred / Thousand 10+ times | Yes | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Mount Rushmore | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Beautiful 7+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Cheat / Cheater / Cheating | Yes | 37%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| 30 or above | Yes | – | – |
| 35 or above | Yes | – | – |
| Democrat | No | 69%n=172 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | No | 69%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| New York | No | 64%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | No | 64%n=93 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 58%n=159 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | 52%n=83 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 50%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 49%n=129 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 49%n=75 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | 48%n=113 from settlement history | – |
| Alexander / Hamilton | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Happy Birthday America | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hussein | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Never Seen Before | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Booming | No | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Mandate | No | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Benjamin / Franklin | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hottest | No | 47%n=274 from settlement history | – |
| Rock | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bomb / Bomber | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | No | 45%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 45%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| MAHA / Make America Healthy Again | No | 45%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 44%n=88 from settlement history | – |
| Epic Fury | No | 44%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Dumbocrat / Dumacrat | No | 43%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Olympic / Olympics | No | 43%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Restaurant | No | 43%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| World Cup | No | 42%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala | No | 38%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 37%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 37%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Six Seven | No | 36%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 36%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Hoax | No | 32%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 27%n=183 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Dome | No | 23%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 9%n=422 from settlement history | – |
| 40 or above | No | – | – |
| 45 or above | No | – | – |
| 50 or above | No | – | – |
| 55 or above | No | – | – |
| 60 or above | No | – | – |
| 65 or above | No | – | – |
| 70 or above | No | – | – |
| 75 or above | No | – | – |
| Wild West | open | – | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-07-04:rally · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-07-04:rally · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP