Donald Trump: Remarks, May 8, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his remarks at the Rose Garden?
Markets
31 words · 2 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fake News | Yes | 56%n=97 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 54%n=244 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | No | 65%n=92 from settlement history | – |
| Olympics / Olympic | No | 60%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | 59%n=68 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 59%n=138 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | No | 56%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 56%n=170 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 56%n=136 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 51%n=154 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 49%n=102 from settlement history | – |
| UFO / UAP | No | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| World War | No | 46%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 45%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 44%n=220 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 42%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | No | 41%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Hantavirus / Virus | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | 39%n=74 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 38%n=72 from settlement history | – |
| Virginia | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| World Cup | No | 36%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | No | 36%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Peace | No | 32%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | No | 31%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant | No | 31%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba | No | 30%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Pope | No | 30%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 30%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 30%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 27%n=46 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26MAY08 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP