Donald Trump: Remarks, May 14, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Bilateral Tea with the President of China?
Markets
19 words · 2 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 60%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 58%n=140 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | No | 63%n=93 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 55%n=171 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 54%n=248 from settlement history | – |
| Farmer / Soybean | No | 49%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 45%n=226 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 42%n=73 from settlement history | – |
| Panda | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Elon / Jensen | No | 40%n=81 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 38%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Investment / Invested | No | 37%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Boeing / Plane | No | 36%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 35%n=143 from settlement history | – |
| Hantavirus / Virus | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | No | 30%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Taiwan | No | 26%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 24%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 4%n=364 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26MAY14C · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP