Donald Trump: Press conference, Mar 16, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his News Conference?
Markets
25 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 66%n=203 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 65%n=73 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 63%n=118 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 57%n=126 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 52%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 50%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | Yes | 50%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 50%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 46%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 45%n=112 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | Yes | 36%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 32%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| SAVE Act / Save America Act | No | 61%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | No | 59%n=80 from settlement history | – |
| Epic Fury | No | 51%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 50%n=141 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 46%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Khamenei | No | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Board of Peace | No | 35%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 34%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Pipeline | No | 34%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Draft / Drafted | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| America First | No | 27%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | No | 24%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 15%n=306 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPRESMENTION-DJT26MAR16B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP