Donald Trump: Interview, Apr 21, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during CNBC: Squawk Box?
Polymarket What will Trump say during CNBC: Squawk Box appearance on April 21?
Markets
41 words · 20 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 67%n=123 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 65%n=130 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 64%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 62%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 59%n=81 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 59%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | Yes | 58%n=88 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela | Yes | 57%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | Yes | 53%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 51%n=89 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 49%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | Yes | 49%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 48%n=160 from settlement history | – |
| Kevin / Warsh | Yes | 47%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterated / Obliteration | Yes | 45%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Steve / Witkoff | Yes | 43%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 42%n=204 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | Yes | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Powell / Too Late | Yes | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | Yes | 27%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 67%n=231 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | No | 66%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Soleimani | No | 55%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Tax | No | 54%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Eight Wars / Eighth War | No | 49%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Cheat / Cheated / Cheating / Cheater | No | 49%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Roaring / Like a rock | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Gulf of America / Gulf of Trump | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Khamenei / Khomeini | No | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Through the roof | No | 41%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 41%n=127 from settlement history | – |
| Aircraft Carrier | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran / Oil 13+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Largest inflation / Worst inflation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Negotiator | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Reasonable | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sweet / Crude | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Peace | No | 31%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Gay | No | 30%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordability / Affordable | No | 24%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 10%n=343 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26APR21 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP