Donald Trump: Remarks, Oct 30, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during dinner with President of Korea?
Markets
24 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff | Yes | 75%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 75%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | Yes | 68%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 61%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 57%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Investment | Yes | 42%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Kim / Jong Un | Yes | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 78%n=85 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 66%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 62%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Middle East | No | 61%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 60%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 57%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacturing | No | 56%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Disaster | No | 50%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Hyundai | No | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Communist | No | 44%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | No | 42%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Domestic | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 42%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Shipbuilding / Ship Building | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Water | No | 35%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 17%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 17%n=156 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT30 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP