Donald Trump: Episode, Nov 22, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Fox appearance?
Markets
20 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 68%n=109 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | Yes | 63%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Economy | Yes | 54%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 53%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| New York / Mayor | Yes | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 65%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 64%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| Investment | No | 50%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 48%n=75 from settlement history | – |
| Turkey | No | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Disaster | No | 45%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 45%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Cartel | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hoax | No | 43%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 43%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 37%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 33%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 28%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 20%n=190 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25NOV22 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP