Donald Trump: Remarks, Mar 31, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Executive Orders signing?
Markets
32 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| ID / Identification | Yes | 60%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 60%n=113 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 57%n=219 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 54%n=136 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 54%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 52%n=93 from settlement history | – |
| Filibuster | Yes | 48%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 45%n=60 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | 37%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | Yes | 31%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | Yes | 30%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 29%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 61%n=155 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 55%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 51%n=58 from settlement history | – |
| Prescription | No | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 46%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen | No | 46%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Bobby / Kennedy | No | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 43%n=189 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 41%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 39%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| TSA | No | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | No | 38%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Marco / Rubio | No | 38%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 37%n=123 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 33%n=80 from settlement history | – |
| Most Favored Nation | No | 33%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba | No | 33%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Woke / DEI | No | 26%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 25%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 4%n=328 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-26MAR31 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP