Donald Trump: Remarks, Jan 30, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his announcement?
Markets
28 words · 2 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alcohol | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fentanyl | Yes | 36%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 64%n=164 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 57%n=96 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 56%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Investment / Invested | No | 56%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 55%n=106 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 55%n=130 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 52%n=60 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 52%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 51%n=91 from settlement history | – |
| Paid Agitator / Professional Agitator | No | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Credit | No | 46%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela / Colombia | No | 44%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Home / Housing | No | 43%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Scholarship | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Cocaine | No | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland | No | 39%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 38%n=58 from settlement history | – |
| Woke / DEI | No | 37%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Disaster | No | 36%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 35%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Teacher | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Too Late | No | 34%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 34%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / National Guard | No | 33%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 29%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 6%n=250 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-26JAN30 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP