Donald Trump: Remarks, Nov 12, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Veterans Day remarks in Arlington??
Polymarket What will Trump say during the private dinner on November 12?
Markets
37 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff | Yes | 76%n=58 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 71%n=99 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | Yes | 63%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 55%n=60 from settlement history | – |
| Peace | Yes | 53%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| 250 | Yes | 53%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 52%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| World War | Yes | 47%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Honor | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| God | Yes | 41%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Brave / Bravery | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | Yes | 39%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 73%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 60%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 59%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | 56%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 51%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 49%n=60 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | No | 48%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Middle East | No | 46%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Biden / Autopen 4+ times | No | 46%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Darth Vader | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Too late / Fed | No | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Affordability | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mortgage / Loan 2+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Supreme | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Thank you 10+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff / Investment 5+ times | No | 40%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Communist | No | 40%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| IQ | No | 39%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 39%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 34%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | 31%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 2+ times | No | 30%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Water | No | 26%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Nobel | No | 13%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 7%n=175 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-25NOV12 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP