Donald Trump: Speech, Nov 11, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the ceremony for the Ambassador to India?
Markets
21 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 76%n=96 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 71%n=58 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 70%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | Yes | 61%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Car / Truck | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Investment | Yes | 54%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Modi | Yes | 53%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 49%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | 43%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 43%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 61%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 60%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 59%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 54%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 51%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 47%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 45%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Schumer | No | 39%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Water | No | 34%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 24%n=172 from settlement history | – |
| Sanction | No | 23%n=24 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-25NOV11 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP