Donald Trump: Remarks, Oct 29, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the troop visit on USS George Washington?
Markets
22 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 77%n=82 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 73%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 62%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 61%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 59%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 58%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 57%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Middle East | Yes | 56%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 55%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| 250 | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Drug | Yes | 49%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Water | Yes | 29%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 77%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 53%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | No | 50%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 45%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 44%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | No | 41%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Pearl Harbor | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Venezuela | No | 33%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 31%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 25%n=18 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT29 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP