Donald Trump: Remarks, Mar 31, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during Chicago Opening Night?
Markets
16 words · 0 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crime / Criminal | No | 63%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 62%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 60%n=113 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 57%n=88 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 57%n=219 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 55%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Deal / Settle | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| NATO | No | 51%n=58 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 50%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / TSA | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Movie Star | No | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Marco / Rubio | No | 38%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 37%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Kennedy | No | 34%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 33%n=80 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba | No | 33%n=14 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26MAR31 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP