Donald Trump: Speech, Mar 24, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during the DHS swearing-in ceremony?
Markets
28 words · 18 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran | Yes | 69%n=82 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 68%n=212 from settlement history | – |
| Mental Institution | Yes | 64%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 61%n=108 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 58%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 58%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| ID / Identification | Yes | 57%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Save Act / Save America Act | Yes | 56%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 55%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 54%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 53%n=87 from settlement history | – |
| Deal | Yes | 52%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | Yes | 51%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | Yes | 50%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | Yes | 42%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Deport / Deportation | Yes | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | 33%n=74 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 28%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 62%n=148 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 55%n=179 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 55%n=117 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 46%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| National Guard | No | 40%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Excursion | No | 37%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Kristi / Noem | No | 35%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 34%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 27%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 13%n=317 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26MAR24 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP