Donald Trump: Rally, Apr 20, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Virginia Telerally?
Markets
18 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 67%n=122 from settlement history | – |
| Tax | Yes | 62%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 60%n=230 from settlement history | – |
| Cheat / Cheater / Cheating | Yes | 59%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | Yes | 56%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 48%n=203 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | 62%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 62%n=94 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 55%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | No | 55%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 55%n=60 from settlement history | – |
| Youngkin | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Rigged Election | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 45%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala | No | 44%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 40%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 37%n=85 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordability / Affordable | No | 33%n=19 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26APR20 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP