Donald Trump: Rally, Feb 20, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Georgia rally?
Markets
31 words · 17 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | 73%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 67%n=83 from settlement history | – |
| No No No | Yes | 65%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Crime / Criminal | Yes | 60%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 55%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| 401K | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Investment / Invested | Yes | 55%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| ID / Identification | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Lieutenant | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| November 5 | Yes | 51%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | Yes | 50%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela / Maduro | Yes | 49%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| America First | Yes | 48%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 47%n=148 from settlement history | – |
| Cheat / Cheater / Cheating | Yes | 45%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | 43%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Home / Housing | Yes | 38%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 58%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Marjorie Traitor Greene | No | 56%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Judy Shelton | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | 49%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| RINO | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Highest Inflation | No | 42%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / National Guard | No | 39%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 36%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 35%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Dome | No | 34%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 34%n=78 from settlement history | – |
| Bad Bunny | No | 32%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 17%n=276 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26FEB20 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP