Donald Trump: Keynote, Nov 20, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the US - Saudi Investment Forum?
Markets
28 words · 18 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 69%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 69%n=108 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 68%n=69 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | Yes | 66%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 63%n=66 from settlement history | – |
| Peace | Yes | 59%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 59%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 58%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Economy | Yes | 57%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 53%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Investment | Yes | 50%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Abraham | Yes | 50%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 48%n=73 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 48%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Gas | Yes | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Disaster | Yes | 44%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Elon / Musk | Yes | 36%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Nvidia | No | 48%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Hoax | No | 47%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | No | 47%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Bone | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ronaldo | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Manufacturing | No | 37%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 34%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 31%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 28%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 22%n=188 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25NOV20 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP