Donald Trump: Keynote, Nov 7, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the America Business Forum?
Markets
30 words · 23 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | Yes | 73%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 71%n=90 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 60%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 60%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 60%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 59%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 59%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | Yes | 56%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Middle East | Yes | 52%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 52%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | Yes | 51%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| 250 | Yes | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff 3+ times | Yes | 50%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Investment | Yes | 49%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Peace | Yes | 49%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas | Yes | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | Yes | 42%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| New York | Yes | 40%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Washington / White House | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | 36%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 34%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| America First | Yes | 34%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Yes | 20%n=163 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | No | 47%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 42%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacturing | No | 42%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| National Guard | No | 41%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Chip / Semiconductor | No | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Woke | No | 26%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Nobel | No | 20%n=10 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25NOV07 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP