Donald Trump: Keynote, Nov 18, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during his remarks at McDonald’s Summit?
Markets
23 words · 14 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 67%n=104 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 65%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 63%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | Yes | 59%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 58%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 54%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Economy | Yes | 53%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Big Mac | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fry / Fries | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Quarter Pounder | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | Yes | 43%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 41%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Thanksgiving | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Walmart | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Investment | No | 52%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 51%n=68 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 47%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Beef | No | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tallow | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 38%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Stimulus | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Epstein | No | 25%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 24%n=184 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25NOV18 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP