Donald Trump: Remarks, Feb 6, 2026
Kalshi Mention: Trump makes an Announcement
Markets
26 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff | Yes | 64%n=118 from settlement history | – |
| Medicare / Medicaid | Yes | 57%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| TrumpRX / TrumpRX.gov | Yes | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 48%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Favored Nation | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Airbnb | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Prescription | Yes | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| GLP-1 / Ozempic | Yes | 38%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 31%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 63%n=76 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 61%n=172 from settlement history | – |
| Invested / Investment | No | 55%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 54%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Insurance | No | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 52%n=138 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 49%n=93 from settlement history | – |
| Hoax | No | 45%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Vaccine | No | 41%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| MAHA / Make America Healthy Again | No | 40%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| UK / United Kingdom | No | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Autism | No | 38%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Home / Housing | No | 38%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 34%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 28%n=68 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 5%n=261 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-26FEB06 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP