Donald Trump: Remarks, Nov 7, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Announcement?
Polymarket What will Trump say during Hungary PM events on November 7?
Markets
40 words · 29 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff | Yes | 73%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 73%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 71%n=92 from settlement history | – |
| Eight Wars | Yes | 64%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Medicare / Medicaid | Yes | 60%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | Yes | 59%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 57%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | Yes | 56%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | Yes | 56%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 54%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | Yes | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Percent 5+ times | Yes | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tylenol | Yes | 48%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| New York | Yes | 44%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Investment | Yes | 43%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 42%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Eli Lilly | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Novo Nordisk | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Obese / Obesity | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| TrumpRX / TrumpRX.gov | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trillion / Million / Billion 12+ times | Yes | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Ukraine 12+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fat Shot / Ozempic | Yes | 40%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 39%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | 37%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Budapest | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | 32%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Biden 4+ times | Yes | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Friend of mine | Yes | 28%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Through the roof | No | 52%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 52%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| President Xi | No | 44%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Poland | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 42%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Easiest | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tomahawk 2+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| SNAP / Food Stamp | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Schumer | No | 36%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Water | No | 32%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 17%n=166 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-25NOV07 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP