Donald Trump: Remarks, Nov 18, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during his World Cup meeting?
Markets
23 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 70%n=105 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | Yes | 63%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 60%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| 250 | Yes | 58%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Investment | Yes | 43%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Soccer | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hoax | Yes | 38%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Disaster | Yes | 38%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | 36%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Olympic / Olympics | Yes | 36%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | Yes | 20%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 65%n=66 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 58%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 53%n=69 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 52%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 42%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | No | 41%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 40%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Marjorie / Traitor | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ballroom | No | 36%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 36%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| SNAP / Food Stamp | No | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 12%n=185 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-25NOV18 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP