Donald Trump: Interview, Nov 12, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Fox Interview?
Markets
20 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 77%n=100 from settlement history | – |
| Investment | Yes | 48%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 45%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | Yes | 29%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 50%n=60 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | 49%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| New York | No | 47%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | No | 46%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 45%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 43%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 43%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Syria | No | 42%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Magnet | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | No | 41%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Air Traffic | No | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 39%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 32%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| National Guard | No | 29%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 20%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 18%n=177 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25NOV12 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP