Donald Trump: Remarks, Oct 28, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the bilateral meeting with Japan?
Markets
24 words · 1 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shinzo / Abe | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biden | No | 79%n=81 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 77%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 66%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Disaster | No | 66%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Middle East | No | 62%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 60%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 59%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 59%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Energy | No | 58%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Drug | No | 53%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | No | 53%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Soybean | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crime | No | 46%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Nippon | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 46%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | No | 43%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | No | 42%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Toyota | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Farmer | No | 40%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Vietnam | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Investment | No | 39%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Water | No | 32%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 18%n=153 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-25OCT28 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP