Donald Trump: Keynote, Oct 29, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the APEC CEOs Luncheon in South Korea?
Markets
27 words · 22 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 71%n=84 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 71%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 58%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 57%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 57%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 56%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Energy | Yes | 51%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Middle East | Yes | 51%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | Yes | 50%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | Yes | 44%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | Yes | 43%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Japan | Yes | 41%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff 3+ times | Yes | 41%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Investment | Yes | 40%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Nvidia | Yes | 39%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas | Yes | 38%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Trade Deal | Yes | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | Yes | 38%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacturing | Yes | 37%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Hyundai | Yes | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Kim / Jong Un | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 43%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Best Economy / Greatest Economy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Samsung | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Nobel | No | 23%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 18%n=155 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-25OCT29B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP