Donald Trump: Speech, Apr 1, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Address to the Nation?
Polymarket What will Trump say during Address to the Nation on April 1?
Markets
76 words · 31 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | 68%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 64%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 64%n=126 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 63%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Midnight Hammer | Yes | 62%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 62%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 60%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | Yes | 59%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Soleimani | Yes | 57%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 5+ times | Yes | 55%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela | Yes | 54%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | Yes | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Deal / Settle | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Obama | Yes | 51%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 51%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 50%n=190 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 48%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Qatar | Yes | 48%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Iraq | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NASA / Moon | Yes | 46%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Epic Fury | Yes | 42%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Objective / Goal 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Operation Epic Fury | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Drone | Yes | 41%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Holy / Evil | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Regime Change | Yes | 40%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterated / Obliteration | Yes | 39%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| God 3+ times | Yes | 38%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 35%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Proxy / Hezbollah | Yes | 30%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 70%n=220 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 65%n=114 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | No | 62%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 58%n=94 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 57%n=79 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 56%n=156 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 54%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 53%n=137 from settlement history | – |
| Marco / Rubio | No | 51%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 49%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 49%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War / Nine War | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fake News | No | 48%n=80 from settlement history | – |
| Easter | No | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ground | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Supreme Leader | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| April Fools | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Sacrifice | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Paper Tiger | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Withdraw / Withdrew / Withdrawing | No | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | No | 45%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | No | 43%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Kharg Island | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 42%n=81 from settlement history | – |
| Kharg / Island | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mission Accomplished | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Peace Through Strength | No | 41%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Congress | No | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hegseth | No | 40%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium | No | 39%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | 39%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire / Peace Deal | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Golden Age | No | 38%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 38%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Vance / Rubio | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Cuba | No | 36%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 34%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Hamas / Hezbollah | No | 34%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | No | 32%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Six Seven | No | 31%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 28%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Excursion | No | 27%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Ayatollah / Khamenei | No | 25%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Khamenei / Khomeini | No | 23%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 13%n=329 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26APR01 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP