Donald Trump: Remarks, Apr 1, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during the White House Easter Egg Roll?
Polymarket What will Trump say during Easter lunch on April 1?
Markets
41 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| 250 | Yes | 60%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 57%n=220 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 57%n=88 from settlement history | – |
| Egg | Yes | 52%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Settle / Deal | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 50%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Movie Star | Yes | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 42%n=190 from settlement history | – |
| Rescue / Rescued | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NASA / Moon | Yes | 40%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Jesus | Yes | 39%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | No | 65%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 61%n=114 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 54%n=94 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | No | 52%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Military | No | 51%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| November 5 | No | 47%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| War | No | 46%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Mutilization | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Honor 3+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Obliterated / Obliteration | No | 41%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| April Fools | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hell | No | 41%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Resurrection / Resurrected / Resurrect | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 40%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Bunny | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Holy Week | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Lying / Lyin' | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Thank you 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| White House Faith Office | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Low IQ | No | 39%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Pope | No | 39%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| God 7+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Peace | No | 37%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | 35%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 35%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 33%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 33%n=79 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 33%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 32%n=81 from settlement history | – |
| Stupid / Idiot | No | 30%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-26APR01 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP