Donald Trump: Remarks, Nov 19, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during his dinner with Saudi Arabia?
Markets
28 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff | Yes | 70%n=64 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | Yes | 65%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 63%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 61%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Peace | Yes | 57%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 53%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 52%n=71 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 50%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Investment | Yes | 46%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Bomber | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden | No | 71%n=106 from settlement history | – |
| Economy | No | 59%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | No | 58%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Abraham | No | 49%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 48%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Hoax | No | 47%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Gas | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Disaster | No | 42%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | No | 42%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 41%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 38%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ballroom | No | 33%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 33%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 33%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 28%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Water | No | 25%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 12%n=186 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-25NOV19 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP