Donald Trump: Keynote, Nov 7, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the C5+1 Summit?
Markets
25 words · 0 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | No | 78%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 74%n=93 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 69%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | No | 67%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 65%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 64%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 64%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Energy | No | 63%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 63%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Investment | No | 61%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 60%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | No | 57%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| New York | No | 56%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Trade Deal | No | 54%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 50%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | No | 49%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 47%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 46%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 44%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 43%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | No | 42%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | 36%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 31%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 29%n=167 from settlement history | – |
| Nobel | No | 19%n=11 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25NOV07B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP