Will Donald Trump say “Qatar”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Qatar” at 7 of 12 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 7, 2025 (58%), most recently on Apr 1, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 42% (n=12, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes yes yes no yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Qatar
- Probability
- 42% · n=12
- Settled
- 7/12 (58%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…rebuilding and relief of Morocco, Bahrain. These are the countries that gave Qatar, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Uzbekistan, and many more. That money goes…
Every settled listing
newest first · 12 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | Qatar |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Qatar |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Qatar | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jan 22, 2026 | Qatar | Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 29, 2025 | Qatar | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 29, 2025 | Qatar | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 29, 2025 | Qatar | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Qatar | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| May 20, 2025 | Qatar | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 13, 2025 | Qatar | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Apr 11, 2025 | Qatar | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Apr 7, 2025 | Qatar | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Qatar”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Qatar” at 7 of 12 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 7, 2025 (58%), most recently on Apr 1, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Qatar” next time?
- 42%, from settlement history (n=12). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Qatar’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/qatar (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=qatar · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP