Will Donald Trump say “Ceasefire / Peace Deal”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Ceasefire / Peace Deal” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Feb 5, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 6 speeches we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Ceasefire / Peace Deal
- Probability
- 38% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 6 speeches
- said in 1 of 6
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Thank you, sir. For a deal to happen, a peace deal, to happen in Ukraine, does that mean Zelenskyy and Putin will have to be…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…is now well over 300%. Yet even after we agreed to a cease fire for nuclear discussions, Iran promptly violated it with brazen acts of…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2026 | Ceasefire / Peace Deal |  Polymarket | No |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Peace Deal / Ceasefire | Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Ceasefire / Peace Deal”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Ceasefire / Peace Deal” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Feb 5, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Ceasefire / Peace Deal” next time?
- 38%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Ceasefire / Peace Deal’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/ceasefire-or-peace-deal (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=ceasefire%20%2F%20peace%20deal · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP