Will Donald Trump say “Obama”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Obama” at 14 of 28 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 27, 2024 (50%), most recently on Sep 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=28, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes no no no no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Obama
- Probability
- 38% · n=28
- Settled
- 14/28 (50%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
under Barack Hussein Obama. And what we did is I knew it was going to go up a little bit. Small price to pay, but…
…one more. Has anybody ever heard of a gentleman named Barack Hussein Obama? Well, Barack Hussein Obama said, "We will never be a manufacturing country."…
…know, remember, did you ever hear of a man named Barack Hussein Obama? Barack Barack Hussein Obama. Barack Hussein Obama. Everyone's calling him Barack Hussein…
…anti-tank weapon that I gave them. So, you know, the statement is Obama gave them sheets, I gave them Javelins. So, I've helped Ukraine a…
Every settled listing
newest first · 28 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Obama |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Obama | Polymarket | No | – |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Obama | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Obama | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Obama | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Obama | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Obama | Polymarket | Yes | 25 |
| May 15, 2026 | Obama | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Obama | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Obama | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Obama | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Obama | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Obama |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 19, 2026 | Obama | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Obama | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 13, 2025 | Obama | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 7, 2025 | Obama | Polymarket | No | – |
| Aug 5, 2025 | Obama | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Obama | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 22, 2025 | Obama | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jul 22, 2025 | Obama | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 3, 2025 | Obama | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 12, 2025 | Obama | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Apr 30, 2025 | Obama | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 29, 2025 | Obama | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 15, 2025 | Obama | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 28, 2025 | Obama | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jun 27, 2024 | Obama | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Obama”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Obama” at 14 of 28 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 27, 2024 (50%), most recently on Sep 18, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Obama” next time?
- 38%, from settlement history (n=28). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Obama’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/obama (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=obama · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP