Will Donald Trump say “Ayatollah / Khamenei”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Ayatollah / Khamenei” at 1 of 18 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 22, 2025 (6%), most recently on Mar 19, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 32% (n=18, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 press conferences we have transcripts for (Jun 17, 2026 – Jul 8, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 1/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 6 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Ayatollah / Khamenei
- Probability
- 32% · n=18
- Settled
- 1/18 (6%)
- Last 2 press conferences
- said in 1 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 18 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2026 | Ayatollah / Khamenei |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Ayatollah / Khamenei | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Ayatollah / Khamenei |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 23, 2026 | Ayatollah / Khamenei | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Ayatollah / Khamenei | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Khamenei / Ayatollah | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Ayatollah / Khamenei | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Ayatollah / Khamenei | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Ayatollah / Khamenei | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 9, 2026 | Ayatollah / Khamenei | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 9, 2026 | Khamenei / Ayatollah | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Ayatollah / Khamenei | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Khamenei / Ayatollah | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Khamenei / Ayatollah | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 2, 2026 | Khamenei / Ayatollah | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Ayatollah / Khamenei | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 13, 2025 | Ayatollah / Khamenei | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jun 22, 2025 | Ayatollah / Khamenei | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Ayatollah / Khamenei”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Ayatollah / Khamenei” at 1 of 18 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 22, 2025 (6%), most recently on Mar 19, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Ayatollah / Khamenei” next time?
- 32%, from settlement history (n=18). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Ayatollah / Khamenei’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/ayatollah-or-khamenei (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=ayatollah%20%2F%20khamenei · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP