Will Donald Trump say “Deal / Settle”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Deal / Settle” at 17 of 18 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 26, 2026 (94%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 76% (n=18, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 7.
- Last 10
- 9/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes no yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Deal / Settle
- Probability
- 76% · n=18
- Settled
- 17/18 (94%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 7 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted.
…successful bipartisan effort to pass the Take It Down Act, a big deal.And it went almost, I think, unanimously through Congress. We are very bipartisan.…
Every settled listing
newest first · 21 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Deal / Settle |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Deal / Settle | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Deal / Settle | Kalshi | Yes | 8 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Deal / Settle | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) | – |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Deal / Settle | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Deal / Settle | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Deal / Settle | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Deal / Settle | Kalshi | Yes | 26 |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Deal / Settle | Kalshi | Yes | 10 |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Deal / Settle | Kalshi | Yes | 23 |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Deal / Settle | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 30, 2026 | Deal / Settle | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 27, 2026 | Deal / Settle | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 22, 2026 | Deal / Settle | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 15, 2026 | Deal / Settle | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Deal / Settle | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) | – |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Deal / Settle | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Settle / Deal | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Deal / Settle | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Deal / Settle | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) | – |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Deal / Settle | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Deal / Settle”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Deal / Settle” at 17 of 18 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 26, 2026 (94%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Deal / Settle” next time?
- 76%, from settlement history (n=18). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Deal / Settle’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/deal-or-settle (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=deal%20%2F%20settle · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP