# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · speech 2026-04-01 · 76 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26APR01 · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-address-to-the-nation-on-april-1 · as_of 2026-10-24T00:25:30Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2026-04-01 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 speech transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26APR01 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Address to the Nation, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-during-address-to-the-nation-on-april-1 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the Address to the Nation scheduled for April 1, 2026 at 9PM ET.
# rows 1-33 of 76 by p · more: offset=33 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	1	K	219	152	0.69	YYYYYnYnYY	1	1	0.7	hist	no
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	1	K	55	38	0.69	YYYYYYYYYn	1	0	0.68	hist	yes
Democrat	democrat	1	K	114	78	0.68	YnYYYnYYYn	1	1	0.65	hist	no
Nuclear	nuclear	1	KP	125	80	0.64	YYYYnYYnnn	1	1	0.64	hist	yes
Trump	trump	1	K	52	31	0.6	YYYnYYYYYn	1	1	0.64	hist	yes
Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline	1	K	21	14	0.67	YYnnYnYnYY	1	1	0.63	hist	yes
Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation	negotiate|negotiated|negotiation	1	K	8	6	0.75	YnYYnYYY	1	0	0.62	hist	no
Midnight Hammer	midnight hammer	1	K	13	9	0.69	YYYYYYYYnn	1	1	0.62	hist	yes
Oil	oil	1	K	61	30	0.49	nnYYYnnYYY	1	1	0.62	hist	yes
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	K	19	12	0.63	YnnYYnYYYn	1	1	0.6	hist	yes
Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration	obliterate|obliterated|obliteration	1	K	17	10	0.59	YYYYnnYYnY	1	1	0.59	hist	yes
Transgender	transgender	1	K	94	55	0.59	YnYYYYYnnY	1	1	0.58	hist	no
Soleimani	soleimani	1	K	3	3	1	YYY	1	1	0.57	hist	yes
Election	election	1	K	79	49	0.62	YYnnYYYYYY	1	1	0.57	hist	no
Tariff	tariff	1	K	155	101	0.65	nnnYYnYYnn	1	1	0.56	hist	no
Iran (5+ times)	iran#5	5	K	2	2	1	YY	1	1	0.55	hist	yes
Russia / Russian	russia|russian	1	K	2	2	1	YY	1	1	0.54	hist	yes
Ukraine	ukraine	1	K	52	31	0.6	YnnYYYYYYY	1	1	0.54	hist	no
Venezuela	venezuela	1	K	20	12	0.6	nYYnYYYnYY	1	1	0.54	hist	yes
China	china	1	K	137	89	0.65	YYYnnnYYYY	1	1	0.53	hist	no
Deal / Settle	deal|settle	1	K	1	1	1	Y	1	1	0.52	hist	yes
Obama	obama	1	P	18	10	0.56	YnnnYYnnYY	1	0	0.51	hist	yes
Stock Market	stock market	1	K	55	29	0.53	nnYnnnnnYY	1	1	0.51	hist	yes
Marco / Rubio	marco|rubio	1	K	18	8	0.44	YYnYYYnnnn	1	0	0.51	hist	no
Hottest	hottest	1	K	189	97	0.51	YnYnnnnYnn	1	1	0.5	hist	yes
Eight War / Nine War	eight war|nine war	1	K	1	1	1	Y	1	1	0.49	hist	no
NATO	nato	1	KP	58	29	0.5	YYYnYnnYnn	1	1	0.49	hist	no
Supreme Court	supreme court	1	K	37	14	0.38	YYYnnnYnnY	1	1	0.49	hist	no
Oil / Gas 3+ times	gas|oil#3	3	P	1	1	1	Y	1	1	0.48	hist	yes
Qatar	qatar	1	P	10	6	0.6	nnYnYYYYnY	1	0	0.48	hist	yes
Fake News	fake new	1	KP	80	45	0.56	YYnYnYYYYn	1	1	0.48	hist	no
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	1	K	15	7	0.47	nYnnYYYYnn	1	1	0.48	hist	yes
Easter	easter	1	K	3	1	0.33	nnY	1	0	0.48	hist	no