Will Donald Trump say “Cuba”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Cuba” at 9 of 26 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 3, 2026 (35%), most recently on Sep 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 44% (n=26, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes yes no no no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 99¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Cuba
- Probability
- 44% · n=26
- Settled
- 9/26 (35%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…of Iran will tell you that we have the best equipment. No. Cuba. He wants to know what about Cuba. Give me a break. Give…
My administration is also seeking a fundamental change in the situation in Cuba where the communist regime is under great pressure, the biggest pressure they've…
Every settled listing
newest first · 30 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | Cuba |  Polymarket | Yes | 3 |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Cuba | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| May 31, 2026 | Cuba | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 24, 2026 | Cuba | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| May 24, 2026 | Cuba | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 20, 2026 | Cuba |  Kalshi | No | – |
| May 17, 2026 | Cuba | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| May 8, 2026 | Cuba | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 7, 2026 | Cuba | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Cuba | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Cuba | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) | – |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Cuba | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Cuba | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Cuba | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) | – |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Cuba | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Cuba | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Cuba | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Cuba | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Cuba | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Cuba | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Cuba | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Cuba | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 9, 2026 | Cuba | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Cuba | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Cuba | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Cuba | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Cuba | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Cuba | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Cuba | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Cuba | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Cuba”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Cuba” at 9 of 26 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 3, 2026 (35%), most recently on Sep 22, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Cuba” next time?
- 44%, from settlement history (n=26). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Cuba’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/cuba (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=cuba · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP