Will Donald Trump say “Hegseth”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Hegseth” at 6 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 22, 2025 (46%), most recently on Oct 16, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=13, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the 8 latest transcripts we have (4 remarks, 2 rallies, 2 speeches), it reached the market's count 0 times.
- Last 10
- 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes no yes yes yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Hegseth
- Probability
- 41% · n=13
- Settled
- 6/13 (46%)
- Latest transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (4 remarks, 2 rallies, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…families and American businesses. I want to thank Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, Attorney General Todd Blanche -- these are great people, by the way…
On Israel/Iran, can you fill us in on what Secretary Hegseth spoke about with Prime Minister Netanyahu?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 13 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Hegseth |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Hegseth | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Hegseth | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 6, 2026 | Hegseth | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Hegseth | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Hegseth | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Hegseth | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Hegseth |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Hegseth | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 14, 2026 | Hegseth | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 20, 2025 | Hegseth | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 29, 2025 | Hegseth | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 22, 2025 | Hegseth | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Hegseth”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Hegseth” at 6 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 22, 2025 (46%), most recently on Oct 16, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Hegseth” next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=13). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Hegseth’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/hegseth (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=hegseth · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP