Will Donald Trump say “Venezuela”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Venezuela” at 46 of 61 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 22, 2024 (75%), most recently on Oct 7, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 73% (n=61, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 5. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.

73%from settlement history only · n=61counts: named speaker only
Last 10
8/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes no yes yes no yes yes
Streak
said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Venezuela

Probability
73% · n=61
Settled
46/61 (75%)
Last 8 rallies
said in 5 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in Florida · Oct 23, 2026 · 20:11In transcript

…it is almost like a release. It's good. You know, we took Venezuela quickly. We're doing we're doing very well. You have no idea how…

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in Iowa · Oct 22, 2026 · 41:52In transcript

…I think we're captured and brought to justice the outlaw dictator of Venezuela, Nicholas Maduro, who is now awaiting. And we won the war in…

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in South Carolina · Oct 21, 2026 · 36:39In transcript

…world. And we captured and brought to justice the outlaw dictator of Venezuela, Nicholas Maduro, who's now awaiting trial for lots of bad things. And…

Donald TrumpspeakerRemarks to the United Nations General Assembly in New York City · Sep 22, 2026 · 21:21In transcript

…them out of jails, and we're working closely with the leaders of Venezuela to forge a much better future for the Venezuelan people. Last month,…

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 60 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 7, 2026VenezuelaPolymarketYes–
Sep 22, 2026VenezuelaKalshiYes5
Sep 11, 2026VenezuelaPolymarketNo0
Sep 10, 2026VenezuelaKalshiYes1
Sep 9, 2026VenezuelaKalshiYes5
Sep 8, 2026VenezuelaKalshiNo0
Sep 3, 2026VenezuelaKalshiYes–
Aug 31, 2026VenezuelaPolymarketYes–
Aug 21, 2026VenezuelaPolymarketYes4
Aug 14, 2026VenezuelaKalshiYes3
Aug 11, 2026VenezuelaKalshiNo–
Aug 5, 2026VenezuelaKalshiYes11
Aug 4, 2026VenezuelaKalshiYes–
Jul 31, 2026VenezuelaPolymarketYes–
Jul 28, 2026VenezuelaKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jul 27, 2026VenezuelaKalshiYes5
Jul 24, 2026VenezuelaKalshiYes9
Jul 24, 2026VenezuelaKalshiNo0
Jul 23, 2026VenezuelaPolymarketYes5
Jul 23, 2026VenezuelaKalshiYes5
Jul 22, 2026VenezuelaPolymarketYes4
Jul 22, 2026VenezuelaKalshiYes4
Jul 16, 2026VenezuelaPolymarketYes2
Jul 16, 2026VenezuelaKalshiYes2
Jul 15, 2026VenezuelaPolymarketYes4
Jul 15, 2026VenezuelaKalshiYes4
Jul 14, 2026VenezuelaKalshiNo–
Jul 9, 2026VenezuelaKalshiYes–
Jul 8, 2026VenezuelaPolymarketYes3
Jul 4, 2026VenezuelaKalshiYes–
Jun 29, 2026VenezuelaKalshiNo0
Jun 26, 2026VenezuelaPolymarketYes3
Jun 26, 2026VenezuelaKalshiYes3
Jun 24, 2026VenezuelaPolymarketYes–
Jun 24, 2026VenezuelaKalshiYes–
Jun 23, 2026VenezuelaKalshiYes8
May 27, 2026VenezuelaKalshiYes–
May 20, 2026VenezuelaPolymarketYes–
May 20, 2026VenezuelaKalshiYes–
May 19, 2026VenezuelaPolymarketYes–
May 15, 2026VenezuelaKalshiYes–
May 10, 2026VenezuelaPolymarketNo– (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window))
May 7, 2026VenezuelaKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
May 6, 2026VenezuelaPolymarketYes–
May 6, 2026VenezuelaKalshiYes–
May 1, 2026VenezuelaPolymarketYes–
May 1, 2026VenezuelaKalshiYes–
Apr 21, 2026VenezuelaPolymarketYes–
Apr 17, 2026VenezuelaPolymarketYes–
Apr 17, 2026VenezuelaKalshiYes–
Apr 15, 2026VenezuelaKalshiYes–
Apr 6, 2026VenezuelaPolymarketYes–
Apr 6, 2026VenezuelaKalshiYes–
Apr 1, 2026VenezuelaKalshiYes–
Mar 25, 2026VenezuelaKalshiYes–
Mar 22, 2026VenezuelaPolymarketYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window))
Mar 2, 2026VenezuelaKalshiNo–
Feb 24, 2026VenezuelaPolymarketYes–
Feb 24, 2026VenezuelaKalshiYes–
Feb 14, 2026VenezuelaKalshiYes–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Venezuela”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Venezuela” at 46 of 61 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 22, 2024 (75%), most recently on Oct 7, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Venezuela” next time?
73%, from settlement history (n=61). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Venezuela’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/venezuela (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=venezuela · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP