Will Donald Trump say “Midnight Hammer”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Midnight Hammer” at 10 of 17 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 13, 2025 (59%), most recently on Apr 1, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 46% (n=17, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes no no yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Midnight Hammer
- Probability
- 46% · n=17
- Settled
- 10/17 (59%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…was a horrible deal. We obliterated Iran's nuclear enrichment capacity with Operation Midnight Hammer. You remember that? Late at night, 1 in the morning, and…
…of terror Iran so we obliterated Iran's nuclear enrichment capacity with operation midnight hammer and operation epic fuel Thank you. Thank you. Beautiful. And we…
…to a nuclear weapon. We obliterated Iran's nuclear enrichment capacity with Operation Midnight Hammer, a beautiful operation, and Operation Epic Fury. And we defeated them…
…refused. They absolutely refused. That was a big mistake Then in Operation Midnight Hammer, the U.S. military obliterated their nuclear program beneath mountains of rubble.
Every settled listing
newest first · 17 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 24, 2026 | Midnight Hammer |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Midnight Hammer |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (4 of 5 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Midnight Hammer | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Midnight Hammer | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Midnight Hammer | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Midnight Hammer | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Midnight Hammer | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Midnight Hammer | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 9, 2026 | Midnight Hammer | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Midnight Hammer | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Midnight Hammer | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 2, 2026 | Midnight Hammer | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Midnight Hammer | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 14, 2026 | Midnight Hammer | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 27, 2025 | Midnight Hammer | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 28, 2025 | Midnight Hammer | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 13, 2025 | Midnight Hammer | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Midnight Hammer”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Midnight Hammer” at 10 of 17 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 13, 2025 (59%), most recently on Apr 1, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Midnight Hammer” next time?
- 46%, from settlement history (n=17). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Midnight Hammer’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/midnight-hammer (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=midnight%20hammer · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP